Longest bear market in bitcoin history: famous trader shares strategy
The head of trading firm Eight, Michaël van de Poppe, described the investment and trading strategies in the current bitcoin market.
First, the trader recalled the cyclical nature of the market, which manifests itself in alternating bullish and bearish phases. Compared to the peak reached in November 2021, the bitcoin price has fallen by more than 50%, and the bear market has been going on for 490 days - the longest bear market in the history of cryptocurrency. The current market situation is reminiscent of what happened in 2015. During that period, there was a gradual loss of confidence in the cryptocurrency despite strong growth in fundamentals.
The bitcoin price has been at the same level since the dramatic collapse that occurred 10 days ago, when there was a cascade of liquidations that led to the destruction of positions worth more than $1 billion. Van de Poppe shared his insights on how to make money in the current market and offered two strategies: investment and trading.
The investment strategy is to consider that August and September are historically not the best period for bitcoin, but October-December is a great time, especially in light of the possible approval of spot bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum futures ETFs. The trader reminded that it is impossible to determine exactly where the bottom of the market is, so now is the most favorable period for investors to accumulate assets. According to an analysis published on TradingView by TradingShot, bitcoin could reach a value of $50,000 by the end of 2023.
The analysis focuses on the bullish crossover and moving average divergence (MACD) that occurred about two months ago. This crossover makes historical parallels that could point to significant upside in the future. The analyst emphasized the symmetrical support level derived from the last lower high of the bear cycle. This support level has demonstrated its reliability as all monthly candles have closed above it, except for the sudden collapse caused by the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020. In his opinion, bitcoin could reach the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.786 by December 2023, which would be $50,000.
The near future could bring another high for bitcoin, and this is influenced by factors such as the upcoming halving and potential approval of a spot bitcoin-ETF.